I am posting this because I feel frustrated. I wanted to file a leave of absence tomorrow morning so that I can watch the Oscars live, but there are three meetings tomorrow morning. Apparently, clients are more important than the Oscars. I can't understand that.
What Should Win/Will Win at the OscarsBy Graham Flanagan - CNN
Best Picture
Should Win: MILK
The Academy loves to reward movies dealing with hot-button political issues. Crash (2005) dealt with race.. Gandhi with human rights... and The Best Years of Our Lives focused on the veteran's difficult post-war experience. With all of the recent controversy surrounding the issue of Gay Marriage, it would make sense for Milk to join this group of topical best picture winners. However, there's much more to this movie than its politics. Director Gus Van Sant proves yet again that he is one of the masters of his craft, and receives strong support from Sean Penn in yet another amazing performance. Overall, this is the best film in the category.
Will Win: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
I can't imagine this epic pleaser of both crowds and critics not walking away with the grand prize on Oscar night. It received the lion's share of the precursor awards, including the Golden Globe and the SAG award for Best Ensemble. The only thing standing in its way is perhaps an inability to connect with older members of the Academy put off by the film's techno-infused soundtrack and instances of graphic violence.
AM Picks for Best Pic
- John Roberts: Slumdog Millionaire
- Jason Carroll: Doubt
- Carol Costello: Slumdog Millionaire
- Jim Acosta: Slumdog Millionaire
- Rob Marciano: Step Brothers
- Ali Velshi: Tropic Thunder (just for the end)
- Dr. Sanjay Gupta: Slumdog Millionaire
- Jeanne Moos: Hamster on a Piano (Youtube video)
Best Actor
Should Win: Sean Penn in MILK
It's hard to believe that Sean Penn only has one Oscar, which he brought home for Mystic River in 2004. In all honesty, he should have at least three. How he didn't win for Dead Man Walking or Sweet and Lowdown remains one of Oscar's most puzzling mysteries. Well, it's time to put another one on his shelf, and this one definitely wouldn't be any "sympathy" or "lifetime achievement award." Penn totally abandoned his grizzled, tough-guy persona to transform into Harvey Milk. So successful was he that I had to remind myself halfway through that, hey, that's Sean Penn up there!
Will Win: Mickey Rourke in THE WRESTLER
After taking home the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and a slew of other awards, Rourke definitely has the momentum heading into Oscar Sunday. We've all heard the cliché that Hollywood loves a comeback, and the Hollywood community definitely loved Rourke's performance as a self-destructive pro-wrestler on a futile quest for redemption. However, didn't Rourke already "come back" a few years ago as the Mickey Spillane-esque narration-spewing Marv in Robert Rodriguez's Sin City? Believe it or not, Rourke had a little bit of Oscar buzz for that movie, too... ah, the short attention span of Hollywood. That film and this one both prove that Rourke is genuinely talented and it wouldn't surprise me if he saw himself back in the Kodak Theatre in the near future.
Best Actress
Should Win: Meryl Streep in DOUBT
With fifteen Oscar nominations to her credit, the cinema community at large regards Meryl Streep as the greatest female screen actor on the planet. However, she hasn't taken home a statue since 1982, when she won for Sophie's Choice. Hard to believe, isn't it? I honestly believe that she has never deserved to win more than she has for her work as the Catholic School principal in DOUBT. She goes toe-to-toe with one of the screen's greatest male actors in Philip Seymour Hoffman and wins a few more rounds than Hoffman's character might like to admit. Streep's disappears into her embodiment of the ultra-strict Sister Aloysius, who commands the audience's respect with the same intensity as that which she inflicts on her fearful students. Streep truly earned this one.
Will Win: Kate Winslet in THE READER
Like Rourke, Winslet seems to have all the momentum, though Streep is hot on her tail. A win for Winslet would no doubt stir up its fair share of controversy since she was initially campaigning for a spot in the supporting category. Also some people might see the win as a reward for the combination of her work in The Reader as well as her unmentioned work in Revolutionary Road. Well, it's definitely a lead performance, and (contrary to the rumors) there's much more to the role than her lying around the apartment naked the whole time. Winslet truly plays against type and embodies a very stiff, almost masculine physical quality that stands out from all of her previous work. With six previous nominations and no wins, many see her as the youngest person in history to be due for a "sympathy award." That concept is somewhat ludicrous since it is actually a terrific and deserving performance. Although I'm definitely on team-Streep, it won't bother me if Winslet takes it home.
Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Heath Ledger in THE DARK KNIGHT
Most would agree that much of the wild box office success that met the year's biggest blockbuster should be attributed to the mystique surrounding Ledger's compelling portrayal of one of the world's most famous villains. I have to wholeheartedly agree. The movie is undeniably at its best whenever Ledger is on-screen. And whenever he isn't in the mix, it always feels as though something is lacking and you can't wait for him to return. I do feel, however, that the award should be complimented with a win for The Dark Knight in the Best Makeup category. The character design of the Joker in this film undoubtedly played a major role in motivating Ledger to go inside those dark places within his own mind in order to create such a twisted figure that will forever remain a true cinematic icon.
Will Win: Heath Ledger in THE DARK KNIGHT
Again, this is no "sympathy award." Were he still alive, Ledger would likely be the current frontrunner. His win will not only serve as a tribute to a truly memorable individual performance, but also to the legacy of one of cinema's most promising talents that was sadly taken from us during his prime.
Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Halfway through Woody Allen's ode to the Catalan way of life, Penelope Cruz arrives with the force of an F-5 tornado, turning the entire story on its ear and only enhancing what was already a fantastic piece of filmmaking. Though she has achieved relative stardom in the United States, Cruz didn't prove herself to U.S. audiences as a gifted actress until her Oscar-nominated performance in Volver made a splash in cinemas across the mainland. She works best in her native tongue, and here Allen has given her the opportunity to move seamlessly between it and the English language while in the same scene! It's this aspect of her performance that makes it truly special enough to deserve such an honor.
Will Win: Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Cruz is the eighth actress Woody Allen has directed to a Best Supporting Actress nomination, and after Diane Weist and Mira Sorvino, she'll be the third to bring home the trophy. Hopefully she'll take a cue from double-winner Weist and work with Allen again soon so she can get in line for another Golden Boy!
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